With only 10 games left in the NHL regular season, and with many of the teams in the Eastern and Western conferences sitting relatively comfortably in playoff spots I figured it would be a good time to start prognosticating on the playoff chances of various teams, and predict which teams had the best chance of hoisting the 2010 Stanley Cup. Of course, in this post-lockout era, parity is much greater than ever before, and playoff upsets are inevitable. Still, in most playoff years the cream eventually rises to the top, and in my opinion it will be one of the teams listed below that will carry home the hardware this year. Here are my picks for the top Stanley Cup contenders for 2010, counted down from 5 to 1:

5 - San Jose Sharks - A perennial regular season powerhouse the San Jose Sharks have been notorious underachievers come playoff time for the past half-decade or so. Despite an abundance of talent at forward, a strong defensive core, and a top flight goaltender in Evgeni Nabokov, the Sharks have been unable to take their game to the next level and match the playoff intensity of their opponents in years gone by. Will this year be any different? Sadly for Sharks fans, I don’t think so.

With the off-season acquisition of sniper Dany Heatley expectations by Sharks fans going into this season. Fans salivated at the prospect of Heatley and Joe Thornton – arguably the league’s premier passer – forming a one-two punch that would be the envy of the league. Heatley and Thornton have shown decent chemistry this year, but at his current pace Heatley will finish the season with between 40 and 45 goals, far short of the 50-60 most pundits were predicting.

However, if Heatley is a mild disappointment to date long-time Shark Patrick Marleau has been a pleasant surprise. With 41 goals, Marleau currently sits 4th in the league in that category. With both Marleau and Heatley a threat to score opposing teams have had a nightmare trying to defend the Sharks this season.

Unfortunately for the Sharks it is not goal-scoring that wins NHL championships, but defense and goaltending. Over much of the season the Sharks have been solid in both categories, but since the Olympic break the Sharks defense, and in particular goaltender Evgeni Nabokov, has been particularly porous – not a good sign heading down the stretch to the playoffs.

Overall, though San Jose certainly has all the pieces of the puzzle to capture a championship, questionable big-game goaltending and a tendency for stars like Thornton and Marleau to disappear in the post-season will keep San Jose from hoisting the Stanley Cup in 2010 – again.

4 – Pittsburgh Penguins - Yes, they are the defending Stanley Cup champions, and yes, they’ve been to the finals two years in a row now, but I think this year Pittsburgh is going to have their work cut out for them making it out of the Eastern Conference.

Sidney Crosby is having another terrific year. Always known as a terrific passer Crosby has reinvented his game this year, shooting the puck more, and driving the net harder rather than always looking to find a teammate. The impact to his game has been significant, and Crosby has been dueling all season long with nemesis Alexander Ovechkin for the league lead in goals – a race no one would have predicted even one short year ago.

Unfortunately, though Crosby’s been just as good or better than he was last year, teammates Evgeni Malkin and Marc-Andre Fleury have seen their respective games sag. Malkin, last year’s Art Ross Trophy winner currently sits 17th in league scoring, 27 points behind league leader Ovechkin. Fleury hasn’t been able to recapture the brilliance that saw him lead the Pens to the promise land last June. Amazingly, he recorded his first shutout of the year just the other night, with less than a month remaining in the regular season. He has been average at best, and he will have to regain his form if the Penguins have a hope of getting past the powerful Washington Capitals, a feat they barely accomplished in last year’s playoffs when Fleury was playing at the pinnacle of his capability.

Pittsburgh gained valuable experience over their past two playoff runs, and with Sidney Crosby leading the way, anything is possible, but I don’t like their chances of repeating, and I see them bowing out to Washington in the semi-finals this year.

3 – Chicago Blackhawks

Though fans of the Washington Capitals might argue, in my mind this is the most exciting young team in the league. With a plethora of young stars like Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Duncan Keith, Kris Versteeg and Brent Seabrook, win or lose the Hawks put an entertaining product on the ice each and every night. Not only do the Hawks possess plenty of youthful enthusiasm, but all those young 20-something play with a poise belying their tender years.

However, as good as the Hawks are at the forward position and on the blueline they do have an Achillles’ Heel, and that is in net. Neither Cristobal Huet nor Antti Niemi can really be consider a bona fide number one goaltender, and their play throughout the season has been inconsistent to say the least. Fans were understandably upset when Chicago failed to make a move to address their goaltending deficiency at the trade deadline, and that failure may ultimately prove to be Chicago’s undoing in this year’s playoff run.

2 – Vancouver Canucks

Ranking the Canucks number two on this list of 2010 Stanley Cup contenders might raise some eyebrows, but in my mind it is a ranking that is well-deserved. For decades long-suffering Canucks fans have watched their team fail to achieve Stanley Cup glory, despite close runs in 1982 and 1994. In intervening years they’ve ice competitive teams, but there was always an ingredient missing. Sometimes it was a championship caliber goaltender; other times it was a lack of offense. This year, perhaps for the first time since 1994, the Canucks don’t have any glaring deficiencies.

On offense the Sedin twins have vaulted into the realm of superstardom, challenging players like Crosby, Ovechkin and Thornton for title of the NHL’s best player. With their emergence as bona fide superstars, and the improved offensive play of former grinders like Alex Burrows and Ryan Kesler the Canucks have a balanced scoring attack. Having other players like Kesler, Burrows, Samuelsson and Demitra to worry about means opposing teams can’t strictly focus their defensive assets on the Sedins.

Ultimately the Canucks’ success is going to be determined by goaltending, and in that category they should have the advantage over the other teams on this list. For several seasons now Roberto Luongo has been one of the best goaltenders in the world, and he is capable of single-handedly stealing a playoff series. Luongo, much like Fleury in Pittsburgh, has been inconsistent this year, but if he can find his A game going into the playoffs, then it is hard to imagine anyone in the Western Conference beating this team in a seven game series.

1 – Washington Capitals - This team has been an absolute juggernaut all season long, and at this point, with the way they’ve dominated this year, it is hard to deny them top spot on the list of Stanley Cup favorites. Led by 2 time defending Hart Trophy winner Alex Ovechkin the Caps are more offensively gifted than any team in the league. Backing up Ovechkin are stars like Nicklas Backstrom, Alexander Semin, and Mike Green. Even supposed role players like Mike Knuble and Brooks Laich have gotten into the act, contributing regularly to the Caps impressive offensive attack.

Though I said above that defense and goaltending wins NHL championships, this might be one of those rare seasons that is the exception to that rule. Washington’s defensive core is certainly far from horrible, but on many nights they give up too many chances, and only Washington’s ability to score goals in bunches keeps them from scrutiny.

In goal the picture is even cloudier. Semyon Varlamov was expected to carry the load this season, but due to injury has had to defer to veteran Jose Theodore. Varlamov is back, but has yet to find his game, giving up 14 goals in his last four games. If he continues to struggle going into the playoffs then Washington’s chances get a lot slimmer.

There you have it – the top 5 contenders going into the 2010 Stanley Cup playoffs. As I said before upsets happen all the time in the NHL playoffs, and there is a fair chance that another team than the ones listed above will capture hockey’s ultimate prize. The Buffalo Sabres, New Jersey Devils, Detroit Red Wings and even the Phoenix Coyotes can be considered dark horse teams, and will bear watching in this year’s playoffs.

No matter how it plays out it is going to be a thrilling time for hockey fans. Every playoff year seems to get better, and 2010 is going to be no exception.

 

*** Update *** Wow, I am eating crow today. Ovechkin limped down the stretch following the Olympic break, while Henrik came through in the clutch. Amazingly, Sidney Crosby, who looked like he would finish a distant third, had a great surge toward the end to finish second in the points race (tied with Ovie, but gets the tie-breaker because he had one more goal than Ovechkin). Great, compelling drama in the individual awards races down the stretch.

Congratulations to Henrik Sedin for capturing the first ever scoring title by a Vancouver Canucks player. Sorry I doubted you sir. :)

Just a couple of short weeks ago Vancouver Canucks fans were abuzz with excitement. Henrik Sedin was atop the scoring race with a healthy lead over potential Art Ross candidates like Joe Thornton, Alexander Ovechkin and Sidney Crosby. Of course it is natural to be excited when one of your team's players leads the league in scoring, but considering that no Vancouver Canuck has ever finished the season atop the scoring race (Markus Naslund was the only one to come close) fans and media alike were abuzz with the possibility that Henrik could capture the 2010 Art Ross Trophy.

Henrik, up until now a perennial point-a-game player, has this season emerged as one of the game's greatest superstars, and he, brother Daniel, and grinder turned sniper Alexandre Burrows have arguably been the league's best line through the two-third mark of the NHL season. Stronger, faster, and more determined than ever, the Sedins (and Burrows) have terrorized opposing defensemen, who have been largely helpless to defend against their dominating cycle, their uncanny no-look passes, and their much-improved shooting ability. Up until the last couple of weeks the line, and most particularly Henrik, seemed unstoppable and it looked like Henrik might indeed have a legitimate shot of becoming the first Vancouver Canuck to nab the Art Ross.

What a difference a couple of weeks makes. Alexander Ovechkin has been on an absolute tear while Sedin has cooled off considerably. Going into today's action Ovechkin had erased Henrik's sizable lead, passed him, and sat 4 points ahead in the scoring race - 82 to 78. However, it was Ovechkin's performance today against the Sidney-Crosby-led, arch rival Pittsburgh Penguins that looks to have sounded the death knell on Henrik Sedin's Art Ross hopes.

With his Washington Capitals trailing the Pens 4-2 going into the third period Ovechkin scored two goals in the final frame to tie that game up and send it to overtime. He managed the feat despite taking a hard cross check to the ribs that seemed to have him laboring. Though he was lacking his usual flash and dash Ovechkin still has that nose for the net and that wicked release, and those two attributes allowed him to beat a helpless Marc-Andre Fleury for the 4-3 and 4-4 goals.

In overtime the Penguins looked like the better team, with Washington generating little in the way of offensive chances. However, an undisciplined high-sticking penalty by rugged Pittsburgh defender Brooks Orpik gave the Caps a 4-3 powerplay with under 3 minutes left in overtime. There was no mystery that the play was to give the puck to Ovechkin and the Pens did their best to overplay to his side, but Ovechkin still managed to get a low shot through traffic. The puck rattled off the post and back under Fleury, where Mike Knuble was waiting to poke it into the net.

Ovechkin finished the game with 3 goals and 1 assist, overshadowing Sidney Crosby's 2 goal effort in a losing cause, and extending his lead in the scoring race to what appears to be an unassailable 8 points. Now it may seem premature to concede the scoring title to Ovechkin with 25 games left in the season, but you have to remember that Ovechkin actually missed some time early in the year due to injury and suspension and has managed to build this lead despite the fact that he has played 7 or 8 fewer games than Crosby, Sedin or Thornton, giving him a points per game average much higher than his competitors. Barring injury to Ovechkin it is hard to imagine that any of the three are going to be able to gain any ground on the Russian superstar. In fact, it is more likely that Ovechkin will continue to widen the gulf and by the time the curtain falls on game 82 of the regular season he will have won the scoring title by a landslide.

Ovie's 3 goals (to Crosby's 2) also extended his lead for the Rocket Richard Trophy as the league's leading goal scorer. He now has 42 goals to Crosby's 39, and despite Crosby's emergence as a sniper this season it is hard to imagine Sid the Kid reeling in the Great 8 down the stretch.

Ovechkin's clutch performance this afternoon also played a huge role in extending the Washington Capitals' incredible winning streak to 14 games. Ironically, it is the Pittsburgh Penguins franchise that holds the record for the longest consecutive regular season winning streak, a mark of 17 straight set by the Mario-Lemieux-led Penguins back in 1993. You know Crosby and the Penguins are kicking themselves after blowing a golden chance to end the streak.

 

There is arguably no hotter debate in the game of hockey today than Crosby vs. Ovechkin. Before these two incredible athletes ever suited up for an NHL game hockey pundits around the world were speculating on which one would become a bigger hockey superstar. Even fate lent a hand in adding fuel to the fire of this match-up. The NHL lockout in 2004-05 season ended up having at least one beneficial side-effect. It delayed Ovechkin’s entry into the NHL by one year, setting up perhaps the greatest rookie rivalry in the history of the game, as he and Sidney Crosby became NHL freshmen in the 2005-06 season. The pair wasted no time establishing a game of one-upmanship, and the past four and a half seasons have no doubt only been a little taste of what we can expect of what is sure to be a career long rivalry between Crosby and Ovechkin.

The 1972 Summit Series, the 1981 and 1987 Canada Cups, the 1975 New Year’s Eve game between the Soviet Red Army team and the NHL’s Montreal Canadiens – all of these classic hockey moments between Canadians and Russians helped to build an international rivalry that is among the greatest in sports. Each nation has had its moments of glory and its moments of bitter defeat, and proud patriotic fans have felt the elation and the heartbreak just as keenly as the players involved in the games themselves. Now Sidney Crosby and Alexander Ovechkin bring a new, exciting chapter to this storied rivalry, and once again Canadian and Russian fans are at odds over which one of their native sons deserves the title of world’s best hockey player.

Now, to be fair these two aren’t the only ones that deserve to be in the conversation of who is the best player in the NHL right now. Ovechkin’s countryman, Evgeni Malkin is the reigning Art Ross Trophy and Conn Smythe Trophy winner. Crosby’s fellow Canadians Joe Thornton and Jarome Iginla continue to put up impressive offensive stats while physically dominating their opposition. A healthy Marian Gaborik has been a one-man show with the New York Rangers, challenging for the league lead in goals and providing highlights nearly every time he touches the puck. And don’t forget Henrik Sedin, who at the time of this writing, is ahead of all of these stars in the race for the 2009-10 Art Ross Trophy. Any of these phenomenally talented players, and a few other besides could make strong arguments as the best player in the league. However, none of these stars have the sheer star power and the electrifying ability to pull fans out of their seats like Sidney Crosby and Alexander Ovechkin do. It is these factors, combined with the fact that the two entered the league at the same time that makes the Ovechkin vs. Crosby debate such a hot topic among fans.

Crosby vs. Ovechkin – 2005-06 The Rookie Year – Round 1 – Winner: Ovechkin

The clash between these two young superstars in the 2005 World Junior Hockey Championships in Grand Forks, North Dakota really set the stage for a great rivalry leading into their rookie year. In the gold medal game Crosby and his junior teammates – arguably the greatest Canadian World Junior team ever assembled – ran Ovechkin right out of the rink, physically punishing him to the point where he couldn’t play anymore, en route to a dominating gold medal win over the Russians.

You can bet that heading into his inaugural NHL season that Ovechkin remembered that game, and used it as a motivational tool in his head to head match-up vs. Crosby. Over the course of the 2005-06 NHL season the two young stars played an incredibly entertaining game of “Anything you can do I can do better.” electrifying fans with highlight reel plays on a nightly basis. One of those highlight reel plays was an amazing goal by Ovechkin against the Phoenix Coyotes that many consider the most spectacular NHL goal of all time. Somehow miss that goal? Check out the video to see just how amazing it was.

Ovechkin had an indisputable advantage that season as he came into the league as a 20 year old, while Crosby was a fuzzy-cheeked 18-year-old. While those two years might make less difference now, at that age it was a wide gulf. Crosby acquitted himself well in the battle, but ultimately Ovechkin took round one of the battle, scoring 52 goals and 106 points (to Crosby’s 102) to capture the Calder Trophy as Rookie of the Year.

The tight Calder race was the most entertaining in recent memory, and marked the first time in the history of the NHL that two rookies had scored 100+ points in the same year. Yes, the table was set for a career rivalry on par with Wayne Gretzky vs. Mario Lemieux, or Larry Bird vs. Magic Johnson, and fans were excited to see just how good these two young men would become.

Crosby. Vs. Ovechkin 2006-07 - Round 2 – Winner: Crosby

Crosby, ever the ambassador for his team, and with a maturity belying his tender years, always puts the team first before his individual accomplishments, but you have to know that it burned him to lose the Calder to his arch-nemesis. In the 2006-07 campaign he came out on a mission to prove that he was the best player in the game, and that he wasn’t going to take his round one defeat lying down.

Crosby was an assist machine that year, showing incredible vision on the ice and making uncanny tape to tape passes that had many comparing him to Wayne Gretzky – pretty heady stuff for a 19 year old. By the time the dust settled on the season he had 84 helpers, averaging better than an assist per game. He added 36 goals for good measure, giving him a total of 120 points; good enough to capture the Art Ross Trophy as the league’s leading scorer. His great season also landed him both the Hart Trophy as NHL MVP, as well as the Lester B. Pearson, a trophy awarded him by his fellow NHL players as the best player in the league.

Ovechkin, for his part was having an off year. Hard to believe that 46 goals and 92 points could be considered an off year, but considering what the Great 8 has done since the 2006-07 season can be categorized as a classic sophomore slump. Even more salt in the wound for Ovechkin was having to watch Crosby make it to the Stanley Cup playoffs while he sat on the sidelines, his Washington Capitals having failed to qualify.

Crosby vs. Ovechkin 2007-08 - Round 3 – Winner: Ovechkin

Despite his disappointing 2006-07 campaign Ovechkin was far from willing to throw in the towel and concede the title of NHL’s best player to Crosby. He came back with a vengeance in the 2007-08 campaign, and enjoyed his most statistically prolific season to date, netting a whopping 65 goals and totaling 112 points. He trumped Crosby’s Art Ross, Hart, and Pearson trophy hat trick of the year before, snatching up all three trophies, plus the Rocket Richard Trophy as the league’s leading goal scorer for good measure.

However, as impressive as his individual performance was that season, it was a playoff berth that Ovechkin was really after. He led his Caps to the top of the Southeast division, helping them grab a 3rd place seed in the Eastern Conference playoff standings.

Ovechkin didn’t disappoint in his first taste of playoff hockey, scoring 4 goals and 9 points in just 7 games. However, his Stanley Cup dream would end quickly, when Joffrey Lupul scored in overtime to help the Philadelphia Flyers eliminate Ovie’s Caps in a grueling, yet ultimately heart-breaking 7 game series.

Crosby’s season was nearly the complete opposite of Ovechkin’s. Hampered by injuries, Crosby only suited up for 53 of his club’s games, and as a result never really threatened Ovechkin in the Art Ross race, netting a career low 72 points that year.

However, in the playoffs the young Penguins captain would make his mark. He put up 27 points that playoff year, helping his Pens easily dispatch the Ottawa Senators, New York Rangers and Philadelphia Flyers en route to a match up with the powerful Detroit Red Wings with the Stanley Cup itself on the line.

Ultimately the combination of the Wings skill, grit and experience were too much for the young Penguins, and Crosby would skate away empty handed that year. But knowing how close he had come only to fail had left Sidney Crosby with a gnawing hunger to hoist the Stanley Cup, and he entered the 2008-09 campaign with a determination frightening in its intensity.

Crosby vs. Ovechkin 2008-09 - Round 4 – Winner: Crosby

2008-09 was another tight race in the Crosby/Ovechkin debate. Both players enjoyed healthy, prolific seasons, and like their rookie year, both players eclipsed the 100 point plateau. Ovechkin’s season was statistically superior, as he netted 56 goals and 110 points – the third time in four seasons he had broken both the 50 goal and 100 point barriers in the same season. His stats earned him the Richard, Pearson and Hart Trophies for a second consecutive year.

Crosby finished with 33 goals and 103 points, good enough for 3rd place in league scoring, behind only Ovechkin (2nd) and teammate Evgeni Malkin, who surprised everyone, scoring 113 points to capture the Art Ross that year. Despite the contributions of the team’s two superstars the Penguins struggled mightily through the first half of the season, and at times were in danger of missing the playoffs entirely. It took the firing of coach Michel Therrien and the subsequent hiring of Dan Bylsma to right the ship, and the Pens turned their season around in a hurry, surging up the standings to ultimately finish 4th in the Eastern Conference.

The Pens would put that home ice advantage to good use, dispatching their Pennsylvania rivals – the Philadelphia Flyers – in 6 games and setting up a dream second round match-up against Ovechkin’s Washington Capitals, who, with 108 points, had finished second in the East, and thus enjoyed home ice advantage in the series.

The two teams fought tooth and nail through all seven games, and Crosby and Ovechkin put on a show for the ages, both of them scoring seemingly at will. Fans were breathless watching game two of the series, where both Ovechkin and Crosby netted hat tricks as they tried to out-duel one another. All in all 5 of the games in the 7 game series were decided by one goal, including 3 consecutive OT decisions in games 4,5, and 6.

Ultimately the crushing letdown of the game 6 overtime loss was too much for the Capitals’ team psyche and Ovechkin’s bag was empty of tricks as his Caps fell 6-2 in the 7th and deciding game to the Penguins.

The loss was made even more agonizing as Crosby’s Penguins rolled over the Carolina Hurricanes and into their second straight Stanley Cup Finals where they again encountered the defending Stanley Cup champion Detroit Red Wings. This time Crosby wouldn’t be denied his dream, and he and his Penguin teammates clawed their way to a bitterly contested 7 game series win to take home the silver chalice. Crosby didn’t win the Conn Smythe Trophy as playoff MVP – that honor went to teammate Evgeni Malkin – but his 15 goals and 31 points were a huge factor in the team’s success, and when he accepted the Stanley Cup from NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman he became the youngest captain in NHL history ever to do so.

Crosby vs. Ovechkin 2009-10 – Round 5 – Winner: ?

It is too early to declare a winner in this years Crosby/Ovechkin battle. Again, both players are making great cases, though at the time of this writing Ovechkin probably has the edge.

Despite missing some games at the beginning of the season due to injury and a suspension Ovie is currently sitting in 2nd in league scoring, just a single point behind Henrik Sedin, and his 1.6 points per game average is the highest in the NHL by a healthy margin. He is also in the hunt for his third straight Rocket Richard Trophy, his 36 goals putting him just one behind the leaders in that category as well.

Ovechkin has clearly matured this season as well. Though his great passion for the game is still very much in evidence, gone are the hotdog celebrations, and the extremely long shifts he has become known for are fewer and further between. Ovechkin’s personal growth has not gone unnoticed by team management and when former captain Chris Clark was traded earlier this season Ovechkin was given the ‘C’.

The move has proven to be a good one as Ovechkin’s individual play hasn’t suffered a whit, and the team has been firing on all cylinders. Ovechkin’s most impressive stat this season isn’t his goals or points, but rather his league-leading +36 rating. His commitment on both sides of the puck has helped his Caps to an incredible 11 game winning streak that has vaulted them to the top of the NHL standings with 82 points in just 56 games. At this point they have to be considered one of the favorites to win the 2010 Stanley Cup.

Crosby, on the other hand, seems to have completely reinvented his game. Known predominantly as a slick playmaker in previous years, Sid the Kid has proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that he knows how to shoot as well. He drives the net hard on a regular basis and no longer passes up golden shot opportunities in favor of a pass. As a result he has netted 37 goals to this point and is tied with San Jose’s Patrick Marleau for the league lead in that category. His 71 points put him in 3rd in the Art Ross race, and with his ability to string together multi-point games he is certainly far from out of the hunt to capture his second scoring title.

His team has been stumbling as of late, but teammate Evgeni Malkin, who in the first half of the season was only a pale shadow of his 2008-09 self , has started to come to life, and with his help Crosby should have no problem getting the Pens well situated for another run at the Stanley Cup this spring.

Who will win round 5 of the Crosby vs. Ovechkin debate? Ultimately, it may well be the Stanley Cup that will decide the outcome. Can Crosby lead his Pens to their second straight cup, or is it finally Ovie and the Caps year?

Whatever the outcome the debate will rage on for years to come over who is the best. In the end the ultimate winner is really the hockey fan who gets the privilege of watching these two great superstars play.

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